Haiti – Environment : NOAA predicts an active hurricane season
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated the statistics that are used to determine when a hurricane season is above, near, or below average. Based on this update, an average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which 7 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.
For the Atlantic hurricane season which runs from June 1 to November 30, 2021, NOAA predicts with a 70% confidence level from 13 to 20 named storms, including 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or more), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or more)
“Although NOAA scientists don’t expect this season to be as busy as last year, it only takes one storm to devastate a community,” recalled Ben Friedman, Acting NOAA Administrator.
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently in the neutral phase, with the possibility of the return of La Nina later in the hurricane season. “ENSO-neutral and La Nina support the conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Predicted warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon will likely be factors in this year’s overall activity.”
Also read the forecast from Colorado State University :